Global air cargo demand jumped 7% year-over-year in June as AI hardware shipments from Asia replace e-commerce as the industry's primary growth engine
According to a July 2026 report from Xeneta, the freight analytics platform, global air cargo demand rose 7% year-over-year in June, and the primary driver wasn’t another wave of online shopping. It was AI. Specifically, semiconductor and hardware shipments flowing from Northeast and Southeast Asia to North America.
The numbers tell a dramatic story
Semiconductor sales surged 106% year-over-year in April 2026, per World Semiconductor Trade Statistics data cited by Xeneta. That’s the highest growth rate the sector has posted since 1986.
Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, described current air cargo volumes as “defying gravity,” noting that AI shipments are effectively compensating for declining e-commerce traffic.
Northeast Asia to North America air cargo rates climbed 41% year-over-year as of late June 2026. Southeast Asia to North America rates were even hotter, up 42% over the same period. Globally, average spot rates hit $3.40 per kilogram, a 38% increase year-over-year. The dynamic load factor improved to 62%.
Why this matters beyond logistics
Taiwan’s GDP grew 15% in Q1 2026, a figure driven in large part by the semiconductor and AI sectors.
There are also some cautionary signals embedded in the data. While year-over-year rates remain elevated, month-on-month spot rates are beginning to soften. Xeneta attributes this easing to recovering cargo capacity in the Middle East and declining jet fuel prices.
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