Trump Moves Oil Markets Again, but Bitcoin Awaits Fed Rate Decision

Oil prices spiked on Wednesday. Brent crude jumped 6.6% to $91.94 a barrel after President Donald Trump vowed to strike Iran. The Federal Reserve sets interest rates hours later.

West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, rose 6.4% to $84.31. Oil had fallen for three days straight. That drop is now gone.

Spot Brent Crude and WTI Performance. Source: TradingView

🚨 HOLY SMOKES. President Trump is FURIOUS with Iran after they launched a surprise attack on US forcesTRUMP: "We are going to beat the f**king SH*T out of them.""We'll be hitting them hard. They're going to get a beating."He has reviewed video of the attack and US forces… pic.twitter.com/K3LpK2geFY— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) July 29, 2026

What Did Iran Attack, and How Did Trump Respond?

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired multiple ballistic missiles at 5:45 p.m. ET on Tuesday. US Central Command called it an attempted surprise attack.

All of them were intercepted. No US troops were hurt and nothing was damaged.

The IRGC said it aimed at a US airbase and a Central Command site in Jordan. Jordan’s state news agency reported five interceptions over the kingdom early Wednesday.

Trump answered in a phone interview with Fox News.

“We’ll be hitting them hard. They’re going to get a beating.”

He also said talks with Iran are still running. So strikes and diplomacy now sit side by side. The missiles broke a pause that started on Friday. Trump had halted strikes to give talks room to work.

BREAKING: President Trump says the US will respond to Iranian strikes on a US airbase in Jordan.US oil prices extend gains to +7% on the day. pic.twitter.com/0o1N1bWuZG— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 29, 2026

Why Does Oil Matter to the Fed Rate Decision?

The Fed has already blamed energy for high prices. Its June 17 statement said so plainly.

“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy.”

Rates stayed at 3.50% to 3.75% that day. All 12 voting officials agreed.

Chair Kevin Warsh no longer hints at future moves. Markets have to guess.

The pattern this year is simple. Expensive oil pushes up bets on a rate hike. Cheaper oil pulls them down.

Talks with Iran collapsed in July. Brent topped $100 again. Bets on a hike tripled from 10.7% to nearly 36% in two weeks.

Then Washington paused its strikes. Brent fell more than 15%. By Tuesday, CME FedWatch showed hike odds of 31.5%.

Wednesday’s jump undoes part of that calm.

What Did the Last Inflation Report Show?

Prices actually fell in June. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.4% drop. That was the biggest monthly fall since April 2020.

Cheap fuel did most of the work.

June 2026 pricesChange over monthChange over yearAll items-0.4%3.5%Core (no food or fuel)0.0%2.6%Energy-5.7%15.7%Gasoline-9.7%26.7%Housing0.1%3.3%June 2026 Consumer Price Index. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Yearly inflation slowed to 3.5% from 4.2%. Core inflation, which leaves out food and fuel, eased to 2.6%.

The yearly picture is still ugly. Energy costs are up 15.7%. Gasoline is up 26.7%.

What Does JPMorgan Expect?

JPMorgan thinks rates stay put. Economist Michael Feroli expects at least two officials to object and push for a hike. He names Beth Hammack and Lorie Logan.

The bank’s traders put hike odds near 30%. That sits below market pricing. They see steady growth and high but stable inflation.

They also think the Fed missed its window. Back in June, yearly inflation ran above the interest rate. At 3.5%, it now sits at the bottom of the Fed’s range.

OutcomeJPMorgan oddsS&P 500 moveHold, tough tone50%+0.25% to -0.5%Hold, soft tone28%+0.5% to 1%Small hike20%-1.5% to -2%Large hike1%Not modeledRate cut1%Not modeledJPMorgan FOMC Scenario Analysis. Source: JPMorgan Market Intelligence

A hold with a tough tone means no change now, plus a warning that hikes may follow. A soft tone is the best result for stocks.

Options traders braced for a swing of roughly 0.8%. They usually pay more than that on inflation days. Few look ready for a shock.

One number cuts the other way. Jobless claims fell to 187,000, the lowest since 1969. Forecasters had expected 210,000. A strong job market gives the Fed less reason to be cautious.

What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin trades near $64,102, up 1.35% on the day. Its total value is roughly $1.29 trillion. It is still down 46% over the past year. The record of $126,080 came in October 2025.

Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

The rate is not the main event. The dot plot is. That chart shows where each official expects rates to go next.

FOMC Dot Plot (June 17, 2026 projections): Source: CME FedWatch Tool

More officials predicting hikes would be bad news. It would mean the Fed sees war-driven fuel costs as lasting.

Fewer would signal patience. That would help Bitcoin’s current price levels.

Two dates settle the argument. Inflation data lands August 12. The Fed meets again on September 15 and 16.

Oil stays the wild card. The Hormuz reopening timeline has slipped to 2027.

Wednesday’s spike came too late to change today’s vote. Whether it changes the forecasts is the real question.

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